Texas Longhorns 2022 Expectations : Pressure on Quinn Ewers, Coach Steve Sarkisian

Julian Martinez: [00:00:12] Okay. So it was an exciting off season here in Austin, and that's good considering the 2021 season was miserable. Five and seven losses to Kansas come from behind losses to Oklahoma. Oklahoma State, just a pretty miserable first year experience for Steve Sarkisian. But then we started to see some early recruiting results or early recruiting successes for the program under Sark, Quinn, Ewers being the first big find for him as being a five star quarterback or a highly touted quarterback like you or should the transfer portal absolute victory. And considering how shoddy the quarterback situation was last year under Hudson Card and Casey Thompson, the Longhorns just getting better at that position could really, of course, change the prospects. And even though it it doesn't apply to the 2022 season, the 2023 recruiting grab of Arch Manning is obviously got a lot of people buzzing about the future of this program, but we're going to be focusing on the 2022 season in this preview. And Vegas really loves the Longhorns this year, at least loves the Longhorns to do some damage within the Big 12 as they are currently still in the Big 12. Haven't yet quite make that move to the SCC starting off. They've got LOUISIANA-MONROE coming in to Austin. That's going to be their opening game this weekend. And then the big test with Alabama in week two facing the number one school, not looking forward to that as it currently stands. They are a two touchdown underdog. What is your expectation for Sark? Kyle Obviously you're not as tied to this program as I am, so the expectations are a little bit different. [00:01:48][95.4]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:01:49] So last year I kind of did like a macro level perspective on Texas, where I was saying any program that is replacing their coach and they didn't do it like midseason, like USC did, like USC went through the four and eight season by firing Helton at the start of the year. But like last year was Texas down year, first year with Sark and I give a free pass to any coach in their first year. Like you're going to bottom out, you're going to have to find players within the margins because your team is behind. On recruiting for the year Recruits can commit and transfer without penalty now, which is something that they always should have been able to do. But people got trapped in these cycles of coaches being fired for years. So any time you're going through a first year, you should get a pass. Even when you lose to Kansas, even when you lose to Iowa State, even when you lose to West Virginia, even when you lose to they lost eight games. They basically lost to everyone in the Big 12 last year. So. [00:02:46][56.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:02:46] Well, you know, my expectation is I always thought that we'd get to a bowl game, at least be six and six. [00:02:52][5.4]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:02:53] Yeah, no, I agree. Oh, I agree. It was a colossal disappointment. But you also get a pass. Like no matter what happened, they could have gone, oh, in 12 and I would have at least given them a pass, because when you're in the first year of a new program, you're going to inevitably go through some of those struggles. So this year for Texas, going from like eighth to like fourth in the Big 12 is something that should be realistic for any program with the amount of money that's being poured into the team. Obviously we know Bijan Robinson is going to be either a day one or second round pick in the draft. They have that wide receiver who I don't know his name but is incredibly good. [00:03:30][37.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:03:31] Xavier Worthy, absolute stud, absolute beast. [00:03:33][2.5]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:03:34] Yeah. And they have Quinn Ewers who there's no guarantee that Quinn yours is going to be great. Remember last year we were talking about DJ or Jungle Play, about him being the Heisman favorite and that didn't work out. So just because you're a five star doesn't guarantee you're going to be a stud. And at the same time, he's going to be better than anything Texas has had since Ehlinger. He might even be better than Sam Ehlinger just based on, you know, his prospects as a quarterback. So Texas being fourth in the Big 12 would be a successful season this year, which if I'm doing that in my head, it would be obviously they'll lose to Bama. Like that's not even without question, no means no. [00:04:10][35.3]
Julian Martinez: [00:04:10] I think the hope there for most Texas fans is we don't expect you to beat Bama, but don't look incompetent playing Bama at least show that you've progressed this season. [00:04:21][10.7]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:04:22] It's a measuring stick game. Like most teams that play Bama, Ohio State or George, I mean, we've talked about Notre Dame and Oregon playing Bama. We could talk about Texas as well in that respect that it's a measuring stick game and you're going to lose it, but it's not going to be a disappointment. People will see it and recognize that it's not that bad of a loss. [00:04:39][17.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:04:40] It's an easy game for Steve Sarkisian in that locker room in the sense that no one is rooting for you. You got the weight of the world against. Yeah. So if you need a game to rally the troops, that Alabama game has been pretty much the game you've been planning on all year now. I think the danger in that is you don't want to look completely past louisiana-monroe. You still want your team to be focused on your week one game because if you start on one against Louisiana-Monroe and suddenly you're going into an own to start to the season after last year's disappointment, that's bad, but no. [00:05:14][34.2]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:05:14] Yeah, of course. [00:05:15][0.6]
Julian Martinez: [00:05:15] But with the expectation and hopes that they win that game. Yes, I understand it's only human that most of your focus is going to be on this Alabama game because that's going to be the big headliner. I mean, everyone in their mother is going to be tuned in to that game. [00:05:28][13.0]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:05:30] Well, at least in the Texas community for sure. I think that there might be great games around that, too, but it'll be a nationally televised game, no question. [00:05:37][7.6]
Julian Martinez: [00:05:37] And that's the thing. That's what I'm saying is it's going to be there whether you love it. And one thing I've learned through having this YouTube channel is that people love to see the Longhorns lose. So if you hate the Longhorns, you're tuning in. If you love the Longhorns, you're tuning in. So so that that's kind of the power still in the Longhorns program, I would say. [00:05:58][20.8]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:05:59] Yeah, for sure. And going beyond the Alabama game. So they probably will not be better. I'm just thinking off the top of my head, Oklahoma, they will not be better than Oklahoma. They won't be better than Oklahoma State and they won't be better than Baylor this year. Everyone else I think they should expect to beat and I think the goal should be don't have any embarrassing losses. But if you do have one or two missteps, be to Baylor. I think they play Baylor at home this year, beat Oklahoma State, maybe pull off the upset in Red River, but just like win one of those games, if you're going to have an embarrassing loss along the way, I think like six and three is something you should expect this year in conference play. [00:06:37][38.3]
Julian Martinez: [00:06:37] See, I think that's part of why people are so pissed off last year and certainly were pissed off during the previous administration is that you were in these tight window games against Oklahoma. So. Beating rivalries is obviously a big deal in college football. So beating the rival in Oklahoma is certainly. Talk about measuring stick. That's where a lot of people are going to put a lot of how successful was your season the Julie's beat one rival. And considering they came up short against Oklahoma and they came up short against Oklahoma State in that game, though, those were games in which people looked at Syracuse like, What the hell are you doing? How how are you not at least winning these ones, especially because they had the lead? The worst thing that happened for Texas in that game is that Spencer Rattler got benched and Caleb Williams came in and took over Oklahoma. Though they're a program that's going to be dealing with a lot of turnover. You're going from Lincoln, Riley to Venables. So that's a seismic shift in terms of philosophy. So if you're Sark and you have the continuity on your team, on your roster, you kind of have to take advantage. So I think that late in the year. So right now, as it stands, Oklahoma's the ninth ranked team in the country. Texas is unranked. That's another game that I have to mark on the calendar, I think almost this year. I know it's lofty, but I got to say that I feel like that's a must win game for them this year because you kind of want to start giving people hope. [00:07:57][80.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:07:58] I get that. Yeah, I get the the idea of wanting to build hope. And like I said, just off the top of my head, I'm guessing Oklahoma's a top ten team. Like you said in the preseason, Baylor is a preseason top ten, although I don't think Baylor is as good as projections say, and Oklahoma State is ranked 12 to start the year. So those are teams that. [00:08:17][18.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:08:17] But Oklahoma indication number two or worse and they lost their coach so take advantage this is where this is a team that you almost have to beat this year because you had an excellent off season. You really did. I mean, Ewers, I know what you're saying. He's not a guarantee. No one's a guarantee. Only guarantee is death and taxes. Right? The way the game is going, the way college football is going. And in a way, it's always been this game where you need high level quarterback play. But certainly in college football, there hasn't been many national champions or aside from Bennett with Georgia that have won on the backs of not having a great quarterback or an NFL worthy quarterback. Ewers The expectation when you have that star rating coming out like he did coming out of high school like he did is he will push his college stock to the next level or push the Longhorns quarterback stock to the next level of where it's been. Because you talk about a guy like Ehlinger Alliger, maybe a backup quarterback for a long time in the NFL and that's a win. You know, that's not a bad thing. I mean, you're one of the top 50, top 60 best quarterbacks in the world if you're in the NFL, even as a backup Colt McCoy obviously still in the league. And that's fine that the Longhorns have been able to have successful backup quarterbacks in the league. [00:09:34][76.9]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:09:35] Colt McCoy was one of the great college quarterbacks of all time. This is just back when college quarterbacks didn't translate well to the NFL. Okay. [00:09:41][5.9]
Julian Martinez: [00:09:41] Okay, I hear what you say. But my point is, Texas has done a great job of pumping out NFL backups over this last decade and a half. And Vince Young tail end of his career was also a great backup quarterback. You would say you want to see this program start to ascend to the point where they're pumping out NFL starters. Hell, you want them to start pumping out NFL players at all. Last year was a horrible year and a horrible indictment. When you consider, yes, you had zero players drafted and your highlight of the entire NFL draft was that after the draft, the undrafted kicker kicked. DICKER The kicker was picked up by the Rams that that's the best that this program has had. But you look, you mentioned Bijan Robinson, a guy who's coming out and is a highly touted prospect. I haven't personally is a day to pick, but there have been the arguments made for maybe a day. One, if he has a Heisman level season and a year is a competent quarterback and Xavier worthy is he is a stud I know it Xavier Worthy because he was making plays out there with Hudson Card. And again, Casey Thompson, his quarterback, they improved their offensive line. So their offense, I'm very, very confident in that unit this year. I actually would have to say I think I'm fairly confident in their offensive unit. The big problem for them last year, that defense got it. Make a tackle, stop someone, wrap someone up. So I'm hoping that that shifts because you're not going to be able to compete with Alabama if you're afraid to tackle somewhat. [00:11:08][86.3]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:11:08] No, let's actually. [00:11:09][0.6]
Julian Martinez: [00:11:10] Yeah, yeah. Okay. You want to go game by game here? [00:11:12][2.0]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:11:12] I don't want to go game by game right now. But I do want to do focus on something that you said you so you said Bijan Robinson being a Heisman Trophy running back and Quinn Ewers being a very capable starting quarterback and they have a strong wide receiver. I don't know that much about their defense, but I'm sure it's like, okay, I guess, and if that's the case, that basically means that they are 2021 Michigan State and 2021 Michigan State went 11 and two with Kenneth Walker almost winning the Heisman Trophy and won. I think it was like the Peach Bowl or something like that. But it was a new year, six bowl game like. They made it to a near six ball game. So like, if that's the case, that's a program builder for Texas where it's like if you have the if you're a Longhorns fan and you have the expectation of Tom Herman, beat Oklahoma, won the Sugar Bowl, and we fired him anyways. So if the expectation is above that, then yes, you you should expect or hope for an 11 wins. [00:12:08][56.1]
Julian Martinez: [00:12:09] You want my realistic expectation? Eight wins. If you told me they got eight wins this year, I'm happy I can walk away with the season saying it was a successful season. Of course I want one of those wins to be Oklahoma. I will add that caveat. I do think that if you have eight wins, but that one win is Oklahoma, that completely changes the complexion of your season. And certainly if you get a bowl victory as well, then obviously we're looking at this program very differently and how how successful their season was. Vegas has you as winners in most of your games, and I think that that's something that should be noted. So going through the schedule. So you should start want to know, right? But you also have. [00:12:49][39.9]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:12:49] You out on the road. Yeah, that's a win. [00:12:50][1.2]
Julian Martinez: [00:12:50] But you also should start one and one because you're playing the number one team in the country the following week. [00:12:54][3.7]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:12:54] Yeah, they will lose that game by 20 points or 30 points. [00:12:57][2.7]
Julian Martinez: [00:12:57] UTSA was a great story last year, but they're a team that you should Big Brother, so you should be two and one. [00:13:04][6.5]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:04] That's a win. That's a. [00:13:05][0.8]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:05] Win. Texas Tech, this has to be a win for you. You can't have one of these stupid games against Texas Tech where you blow that one. So you should, in theory, be starting the season three and one, right? [00:13:15][10.6]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:16] I'll keep going to the next one, though. [00:13:17][1.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:18] Then you go West Virginia. West Virginia, I think a little bit more of a toss up. West Virginia was a game that kind of gave them a little bit of trouble last year. Late in the season. It still feels like a winnable game, right? [00:13:28][10.5]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:29] Oh, absolutely, yeah. West Virginia is one of those mountains they have to climb because that's like the sixth best team in the Big 12. And they're going from eighth best team to fourth best team. So to do that, you have to be to Texas Tech. [00:13:38][9.6]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:38] But we're already at the point where you're you're already starting your season. You're thinking you're four and one, right? You're feeling good about yourself. And then you get the big boy you get at Oklahoma. So if you're at the point where I'm saying you are, where I think that you should go into this game thinking you can beat Oklahoma, you almost beat Oklahoma last year in a horrible season. So now that you've improved the talent on your roster and Oklahoma is going through massive turnover, I think this is an opportunity to get that win. So you could start the season five in one potentially, but let's play let's play it, you know, close to the chiefs and let's say they lose that game. Okay, so you're four and two Iowa State. This this is where your schedule start starts getting a little bit tougher here. Right. So you got Iowa State. You've got Oklahoma State coming up. Let's say you split that. Okay. So you're six and three. Kansas State, you should win that one. So you're seven. Yeah, that's. [00:14:27][48.9]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:14:27] A win. [00:14:28][0.1]
Julian Martinez: [00:14:28] Rate. TCU, TCU. [00:14:30][2.0]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:14:31] That's a win. [00:14:31][0.2]
Julian Martinez: [00:14:32] That's a yeah, that should be a win. [00:14:33][1.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:14:33] This is going to finish last place. But well, Kansas is going to finish last, but TCU is going to finish ninth in the Big 12. [00:14:38][5.1]
Julian Martinez: [00:14:39] It should. And so you're seven and three, then you go to TCU, so you win that when you're eight and three. Big win for Gary Patterson is now. He's a UT assistant. Kansas. Come on, you can't lose that game. Okay, so maybe now I'm Kentucky myself, a nine and three. Okay. And then Baylor. So you should lose that game. So nine four, right? [00:14:58][19.0]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:14:59] I think that's eight and four. [00:15:00][0.8]
Julian Martinez: [00:15:00] But eight in four. Sorry, maybe I'm loss when math is hard sometimes. Okay. [00:15:04][4.2]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:15:04] If they win, if they win a bowl game, it's nine and four. If they win the what would that be? The Texas Bowl or the Cheez-It Bowl. If they win that, then it's nine and four. [00:15:13][8.3]
Julian Martinez: [00:15:13] So I said eight wins and I was being conservative. So that's where I think the expectation should be. [00:15:19][5.9]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:15:20] Mm hmm. Yeah, I think that eight and four would make Sark happy, but seven and five is not a failure. Like we were talking about that stretch of Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Iowa. [00:15:32][11.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:15:32] State. So yeah. So that's the problem, though, is because if you go seven five, you're losing one of these games that I think is really a game you should win. And I think what's going to turn this program around is you've got to stop using games that you should win. What are the best programs in the nation? Do they win the games they're supposed to win? And that's why we count on the Big 12 every year, because they always have that one game against Arizona State on the road or that one game against wazoo. You can't let that be the case if you're Texas and you have any type of aspirations. And I know we've gone back and forth on should Texas have aspirations? You should. If you're a big time program and you have one of the highest budgets in college football, you should, and that the pressure is on Sark even in year two. And I know that. Okay, so he's going to at least get the leash to get have Arch welcome him into town because you're not going to want scorn Arch now that he selected you, he selected Sark unless he just really loves the burnt orange of Texas, then you're not going to move on from the coach that recruited him. So, you know, he's at least got 20, 23 in the bag, but you just want to see growth. You know. [00:16:40][67.8]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:16:40] Let's let's put this in simple terms here. So Texas finished eighth in the Big 12 last year. Right. And eight wins would get them to fourth in the Big 12. So who do you have to jump to get there? Texas Tech, West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas State. And those are the four games that, like the most likely scenario is that they go three and one in those games just based on probabilities, three and one, two and two are the two most likely outcomes of those games. And if you're Texas and you go four no in those games. Well, then you not only have a path to eight wins, you have a path to, hey, if we upset Oklahoma State or we upset Baylor, hey, all of a sudden we're going nine and three. And that's a massive overachievement this year. [00:17:23][42.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:17:23] So what I want from you, t and this is again well, what I really want obviously is undefeated a national championship. But what I wasn't built on today, this year is I want eight wins. I think the offense is going to be really good. I honestly do think that that's something that's well within range possibilities. So I'm not even questioning that. I think the offense is going to be the strength of this team. So I want to see the defensive unit take a step up. I want to see them not afraid to tackle guys. If they get more competitive on that side of the ball, that's going to determine a lot of their success moving forward. I want to see Bijan have a successful year because I want to see him go to the NFL. In fact, I want to see more Longhorns be on NFL radars. That's that's going to be something that I want from this year. So those are all, I think the big three keys for Sark as Texas enters this year. And I don't think that that's unrealistic. I don't think that that's outside of a reasonable expectation for this program. Before we close it out, why do you agree with my three keys for Sark this year? [00:18:25][62.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:18:26] I agree with that assessment. I will again say that Sark will get one more year or two more years guaranteed before results have to be showed. Again, Texas has spent a lot of money on buyouts, so they have a little bit more patience with this coach than they did with Tom Herman. Yeah. And if the goal is to get back to where Tom Herman was, then I think it's doable in three or four years. And if the hope is that Arch Manning becomes the number one prospect in the 2025 class, then, then so be it like that will that will help Texas get back to Tier two of college football teams. And what is Tier two, the teams that will lose by 14 points in the playoff to Alabama or play in sugar bowls and Fiesta Bowls, which if Texas is going to sugar bowls and fiesta balls every year with Archie Manning, that is an excellent building block for your program because they would have to catch lightning in a bottle in order to go from being where they are now to anywhere near a national champion contender team. [00:19:24][58.0]
Julian Martinez: [00:19:25] I laid it out. I laid out what I want from the season. Kyle threw in a little bit of hate at the end just because that's what we bring him for, to balance me out, to reasonably put my expectations in check. But that's also what the comment section is for. So couple, what do you think the Longhorns record is going to be at the end of year two facade? How do you think when Ewers is going to be performing? Because that's going to be one of the big question marks of the season. I want to know your thoughts leave a like on this video subscribe to the channel falls on social media from juju talk sports and Kyle Ledbetter stay safe, happy and healthy and horns up. We'll see you next time. [00:19:25][0.0]
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