Can the Steelers Rise to the Top of AFC North? Analyzing Their Playoff Chances with Kenny Pickett

The Pittsburgh Steelers have always been a team known for their resilience, adaptability, and consistency. With a storied history and a legendary coach in Mike Tomlin at the helm, the Steelers have shown time and again that they are a force to be reckoned with in the NFL. Last season, despite facing challenges and uncertainties, the Steelers managed to stay competitive and even exhibited a promising future with their emerging young talents. As the new season approaches, the question on everyone's mind is whether the Steelers can rise to the occasion and reclaim their spot as contenders in the fiercely competitive AFC North division.

Kenny Pickett's Impact
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In the previous season, the Steelers introduced the promising young quarterback, Kenny Pickett, to their roster. Pickett's presence injected new life into the team, leading them to a winning record and preserving Mike Tomlin's streak of not having a losing season. Pickett's development and growth are closely watched, and with his potential, the Steelers are hopeful about their chances this season.

A Tough Division and Fierce Competition
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Competing in the AFC North is no easy feat. The division boasts strong teams like the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns, each with their own unique strengths and recent successes. The Bengals' recent appearances in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl, along with Lamar Jackson's new contract and the Browns' acquisition of Deshaun Watson, pose significant challenges for the Steelers. The divisional competition is fierce, making every game a crucial battle.

Defensive Dominance
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One of the Steelers' key strengths has always been their defense. Led by stars like Cam Hayward, T.J. Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the defense has consistently kept the team in close contests. Despite injuries and setbacks, the defense has demonstrated its ability to neutralize even the toughest of opponents, setting the stage for hard-fought victories.

Mike Tomlin's Coaching Prowess
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A significant factor in the Steelers' consistent performance is the coaching prowess of Mike Tomlin. Over the past four seasons, Tomlin has managed to maintain a winning record despite facing quarterback rotations that included names like Mason Rudolph, Duck Hodges, and Mitch Trubisky. Tomlin's adaptability and game management skills have allowed the team to stay competitive even in challenging circumstances.

The Upcoming Season: Game-by-Game Analysis
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As the upcoming season approaches, it's important to analyze the Steelers' schedule and assess their potential performance. The early part of the schedule includes matchups against division rivals, non-divisional opponents, and teams from the NFC West and AFC South. While some games may appear more challenging than others, the Steelers' history of performing well against division rivals and their knack for close matchups make every game a potential opportunity for success.

The Path to Contention
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The path to contention for the Pittsburgh Steelers lies in their ability to capitalize on their strengths while addressing potential weaknesses. Kenny Pickett's continued development is pivotal, and the team's offense will need to find its rhythm under his leadership. The defense, led by stars like T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, should continue to dominate opponents and keep games within reach.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team with a rich legacy, an unmatched fighting spirit, and a storied history of overcoming challenges. As they head into the new season, the Steelers have the tools, the talent, and the coaching to make a significant impact in the AFC North. With Mike Tomlin's leadership, Kenny Pickett's potential, and a formidable defense, the Steelers are poised to once again rise to contention in the division race. As fans eagerly await kickoff, the stage is set for an exciting and unpredictable journey for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2023 NFL season.

Julian Martinez: [00:00:05] Last season. We got to get our first look at Kenny Pickett with the Steelers, and he actually led the team to a winning record preserving Mike Tomlin streak, his legendary streak of not having a losing season. With the Steelers, it's still one of the more impressive stats that we have in the NFL today. And looking ahead, I mean, the Steelers are always competitive, but that division that AFC North, it's tough. Let's face it, you have Cincinnati who's been the AFC championship game and a Super Bowl in the last two years. You have the Baltimore Ravens with if we know Lamar Jackson is healthy, brand new contract, we know they're going to be good. And you had the Browns who you know, this is the first year we're going to see with Deshaun Watson starring for them in the entire season. Is Deshaun going to look like he did previous to the suspension and the holdout? But then you have the Steelers again, just the model of consistency with a second year quarterback that in his first preseason game this year looked good. 6 of 7 believe threw a touchdown in that game. The Steelers veterans have put a lot of trust that they think that that he's going to be taking that next step in his development. But what say you, Kyle, when you think of the Steelers? Do they actually have a chance at this division? [00:01:19][74.6]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:01:20] I think they have a chance. I know that's crazy, but I think they have a chance to knock off two of the best teams in the NFL over the last five years. When we talk about the Bengals, who obviously went to the Super Bowl, maybe more the last three years for the Bengals, but obviously went to the Super Bowl two years ago, AFC Championship last year, and Baltimore, who had the best record in the NFL on 2019, won a playoff game in 2021. Now they lost in 2021. But Baltimore has been consistently really good the last few years and so I think Pittsburgh has a chance to catch them because last year Pittsburgh was the team that made the most sense to me of any team in the NFL in the first few games of the season, because from the very beginning I'm like, You drafted Kenny Pickett in the first round play Kenny Pickett Week one. There's no reason we know what Mitch Trubisky is. Mitch Trubisky does not give you a better chance to win, and even if he does, this season should not be about that. It is a season of developing Kenny Pickett and figuring out what you have at the position that you have just invested in for the future. Like you drafted, Pickett with the 20th, pick in the first round. He's your future. Play him, Get him the repetitions. This season doesn't matter for the Steelers. And they started 1-3 and I said after they started 1-3, they will be 2-6 by week eight because they were playing and I have it here correctly. They were playing the Bills, Tampa Bay, the Dolphins and the Eagles, three of those games on the road in a four game stretch in the middle of the season last year. I'm like, they will win one of those games and they'll be two in six. And they were two and six and I wrote them off for the rest of the season because I'm like, the rest of this year is going to be about developing Pickett. They'll get a top draft pick, maybe pick Parris Johnson Junior from Ohio State and then the Steelers went and went seven and two to end the season last year. I have no idea how they went seven and two to end last season because they were awful on paper. They were one of the ten worst teams in the NFL and they came out, went seven and two to end the season. We saw the real time development of Kenny Pickett and the connection he had with George Pickens. They traded Chase Claypool for a second round pick that was at the top of the draft because it was the Bears. They traded Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and got back essentially a first round pick out of that deal. The Pittsburgh Steelers traded Chase Claypool and went seven and two the rest of the season. You saw Pickens become a number one receiver in real time. Diontae Johnson was the best receiver in the NFL last year that didn't have a touchdown, which is frustrating for someone who had him on his fantasy team. But also he put up like 800 yards. He's a former Pro Bowl receiver and now he's their wide receiver too. They brought in Allen Robinson as a wide receiver three and obviously they still have Najee Harris who is and again this is just from physical body type. Najee Harris Physical body type is the most talented running back other since Saquon Barkley entered the NFL in terms of his physical body type he is an he is like Derrick Henry Junior in terms of how physically strong Najee Harris is. And so on the offensive side of the ball, they've been bottom ten in the league each of the last four seasons. And I believe that this season you're going to see the Pittsburgh Steelers develop in a way that is going to potentially lead to them winning the division. [00:04:41][201.2]
Julian Martinez: [00:04:42] Well, we know that they still have some good players on their defense. They finally moved off Devin Bush. He's now in Seattle. But Cam Hayward's there, T.J. Watt their All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick. We've seen him be very good in the past. Was a little bit hit or miss last year and then they just drafted Joey Porter Junior right? Hell, even Alex Highsmith was a good player for them in. Or linebacking corps. Hey, if you have a good defense, you're going to win a couple dogfights, which I think the Steelers are going to find themselves in a lot of. I don't expect them to have a lights out electric offense this season, especially because I still have questions about their coordinator, Matt Canada. Like I didn't like the playcalling the last couple of years for the Steelers. Hell, Ben Roethlisberger really didn't like the play going in his last year. Regardless of what you think about Ben Roethlisberger and certainly in his final years, I do think that he was limited at times by the playcalling of one Matt Canada. And I even saw that last year with rookie Kenny Pickett, where it just seemed like they just were resistant to let them let them cook when they needed to. I just felt like Mac and it just kind of runs a boring offense. So that kind of concerns me. That's the one thing that kind of limits how good I think this team really can be. Again, we're just putting a lot of faith on Mike Tomlin because what he's been able to do over this stretch, this run he's had. But what's it going to take to finally get the Steelers back into contender mode? You know, I'm looking at their win loss totals in Vegas, Right. Eight and a half is what the line is set at. So let's go through the schedule a little bit together. So you mentioned week one, they come out against San Francisco. Is that a winnable game? It's week one and every team in the NFL believes in week one they have a chance to be the Super Bowl champion. So I believe the 49ers are going to get their best. I think that this game is going to be a lot closer than people really think it's going to be. Because when you have a quarterback, certainly like Brock Purdy, who's not a made man at this point, coming off injury, going against that Steelers defense that I mentioned as some dudes, I think that that's going to be a fight. And they play the Browns. We know they've had ownership over the Browns for quite some time stands that playoff game. The Raiders, they go into Las Vegas, go against the Houston Texans. So they have a little bit of a softer part of their schedule. And then you have the Ravens in week five. So those first three games are those first five games, two division opponents, two winnable games, and then a team that's considered a Super Bowl contender in the 49ers . How do you like them in that early season stretch to at least get off on the right foot? [00:07:12][150.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:07:13] So the thing I always look for when doing the schedule predictions and like trying to predict record going forward in the season, I'll always do. What are the games that they'll be either a seven point favorite or a seven point underdog? And of this group, the only game that I point at and say this will definitely be seven point favorite or underdog is them home against the 40 niners the first game of the season. They'll be underdogs I would assume more than seven points. Other than that they're favored in three of those games. Maybe they're a seven point favorite on the road against the Texans. But I just think all of these games are coin tosses and if we keep going down through the schedule, I mean, there's a lot of coin toss games in here for them and. [00:07:59][46.3]
Julian Martinez: [00:08:01] Very few games. [00:08:01][0.6]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:08:02] I can point to on the. [00:08:02][0.7]
Julian Martinez: [00:08:02] Schedule. We have a fairly early bye because after that, five games they have a they have a week, six bye and then they just they're just going the rest of the season. [00:08:09][7.2]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:08:10] And they are in a unique position because they play one against the NFC West, which is a division that is very, very hit or miss. We would say like we assume they can beat the Cardinals and the Rams going into this season. The other side of the coin is that they play against the AFC South, which we also know is a pretty crappy division. So if they can take care of business in those games, they could get to that 910 win threshold. And the Steelers are the kings of the tiebreakers the last few years. So if the tiebreakers break their way, they'll find their way into the playoffs and just maybe find their way to the top of that division. And the thing that was so unique about them last year, and I think this is going to be the key to this year as much as we'll we want to talk about Kenny Pickett and Najee Harris and the revamped offense that they have is the last seven games of the season. Last year, they did not allow 20 points in a single game to any of their opponents. The in the last seven games of the season, it was 17 points, 16 points, 16, 16, ten, 13, 14 when they played against good. Now there's a question to be had about the offense as they were playing. They were playing against two games against Tyler Huntley, the Colts of Jeff Saturday, the Falcons and the Carolina Panthers. And I believe that was the Jarrett Stidham Raiders, too. So, you know, not the best offenses, but at the same time holding them to under 20 points. [00:09:34][83.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:09:34] You do have to give them some love, too, that they were able to maintain. As you mentioned, those defensive performances where T.J. Watt missed a lot of time last year. He did suffer an injury. That's probably why he missed out on being potentially defensive player of the year again a year ago. Then Minkah Fitzpatrick, like I mentioned, last year was a little bit of hit or miss for him, believe he was dealing with some injuries and was banged up as well. And the whole Devin Bush thing, unfortunately, just I can write off a lot of stuff with Devin Bush to the injury I. He was going to be one of the greats at linebacker. But when he suffered that, it just his entire career just went downhill fast. So I think now with this revamping, this retooling they've done on defense, they might actually be even better health permitting. And we'll see how Joey Porter Junior does. Right. Obviously a legacy drafting by them. But if you improve that secondary with a guy like he's advertised as, I think they'll be a lot better. Patrick Peterson is actually on this team, too. [00:10:34][59.6]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:10:34] Yeah, I saw Joseph Hammond. Yeah, him and Keanu Neal came over, I think this last year, so they got a couple of pieces on that defense. And let us not forget, it's one of my favorite stats in the NFL that over the last four seasons, Mike Tomlin has gone 3827 and won with this as his quarterback rotation. Mason Rudolph, Duck Hodges, Josh Dobbs. Two years of the worst Big Ben we've ever seen where he was just totally broken. I called him Jimmy Garoppolo Burger. So it's Mason, Rudolph Duck, Hodges, Josh Dobbs, Mason Rudolph again Jimmy Garoppolo Burger, Mitch Trubisky and can he pick it with that is his quarterback rotation They have gone 3827 and one so Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the NFL and that will be the boost that basically keeps him in every game because like I said, we went through the schedule a little bit. If you go through that whole schedule, I could find maybe like one game that they're like super, super underdogs in. And outside of that, it's a lot of games that feel like they're going to be either plus three or minus three the whole way. And in those games that are one score or, you know, evenly matched teams, I give give Mike Tomlin some some credit for being able to coach them through those those small margin games in the NFL. [00:11:58][84.2]
Julian Martinez: [00:11:59] You know what's going to be another difference maker here is the fact that they match up so well with teams in their division. I don't care what talent they're going against, whether it be Lamar, Joe Burrow or Deshaun, they seem to have a formula for neutralizing the quarterback play of their division opponents because they were in some close games with Cincinnati last year. They've been in some close games with Baltimore, with Lamar under center and Cleveland. Again, I mention it only to his own edge. They've been owning Cleveland for a while. Again, aside from that one playoff game, it's been mostly all Pittsburgh. You win games in your division. Like how? Like even if they go three three, I think they might be a playoff team. [00:12:39][39.8]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:12:39] What that Yeah because what do you think their record is going to be against the AFC south would you guess they play all four teams in the AFC South. What would you guess that their record is going to be? [00:12:48][8.9]
Julian Martinez: [00:12:48] Obviously, I see them beating the Texans Colts. I see them beating the Colts this year with the disarray they currently are under rookie quarterback, certainly Titans. That one is kind of a coin flip game for me with two and two at the very least too. [00:13:02][13.4]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:02] Does it help to help that the Titans game is in Pittsburgh? [00:13:05][2.7]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:06] It does. If I flipped that to 3-1 against that division then and they go 3-3 in their own division right then they are suddenly 6-4 on that stretch of their schedule loud. Let's give them two wins against the NFC West with the Rams and Cardinals. [00:13:22][15.8]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:22] And then I think they would be it would be eight and six and then they would play the Raiders, the Patriots and the Packers. [00:13:29][7.0]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:30] And I could see them beating the Raiders this year. That's nine wins. The Patriots, they win that one. They're a ten when team and you said the Packers and they could beat the Packers so that might be 11 wins right there. [00:13:41][10.7]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:41] If they get to 11 wins, that might be enough to win that division with Cincinnati and Baltimore. That might be enough to win that division. Or at the very least, they're in the playoffs and. [00:13:51][9.1]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:51] Those teams are going to beat up on each other, too. And those teams obviously have the have to deal with a tougher schedule than the Steelers do this season. [00:13:57][6.8]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:58] Yeah, a first place schedule for the Cincinnati Bengals. A first place, not a first place schedule. The Baltimore Ravens are going to end up playing about. You know, 14 of the teams are obviously the same. But you know that the Baltimore Ravens finished second place in that division last year. So they're going to play Miami. They're going to play, if I remember off the top of my head, second place, the Chargers, they're going to play the Chargers this year. That's slightly more difficult games. I mean, if Pittsburgh's in that ten, 11 range, I think you and I are on the same page. We're both betting the over on that eight and a half wins for the Pittsburgh Steelers. And as we're talking it through, that doesn't even necessarily mean we need a big breakthrough for Kenny Pickett. [00:14:40][41.8]
Julian Martinez: [00:14:40] Although I do see it coming, I do think that he is going to be better than he was last season. They're just a poise and I kind of am starting to buy the hype that these veterans are putting down on him. [00:14:50][9.7]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:14:50] Yet Pittsburgh has all sorts of different ways that they can win. We've seen that Mike Tomlin has over the years adapted in a way that other depending on the personnel that he has. They were a defensive team that won the Super Bowl back in 2000 and. Nine. And then they moved to a team that was built around Big Ben and Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, and I think they were the second highest scoring offense in the NFL that year. And then they pivoted the last few. I mean, obviously they haven't had the top of the top level success. They haven't won a playoff game yet, but they've been an above 500 team every year despite the fact that they've had, again, Mason, Rudolph, Duke, Hodges, Josh Dobbs, Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph again, Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett as their quarterbacks. So despite that fact, they pivoted to a defensive first team. Personnel has changed and they've been able to adapt and always find a way to win eight or nine games. [00:15:42][52.0]
Julian Martinez: [00:15:43] All right, guys. Well, what do you think about the Pittsburgh Steelers and their chance to win the AFC North this season? We'd like to hear that below. We will like on the video, subscribe to the channel, follow us on all our social media from Juju and Kyle. Stay safe, happy and healthy. We will see you next time. [00:15:43][0.0]
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