Expectations for Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel & the Miami Dolphins

Julian Martinez: [00:00:12] What are you kind of like envisioning the 2022 Miami Dolphins going. [00:00:16][3.6]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:00:16] Oh, I have no idea what the Miami Dolphins are going to look like this year. I assume based on what people are saying about the roster, based on the construction of their offense, I assume that Miami will be battling it out for the last couple playoff spots just because we know Buffalo's going to win that the AFC East, we know Miami's going to lose like six games on their schedule this year against teams that are clearly better than them that are Super Bowl caliber. Good. So they'll be battling it out for those wildcard spots with, say, the Chargers and maybe the Titans and the Patriots and Broncos country. Let's ride and the Steelers and that'll probably be that the territory that they're in which is like playoff teams shall we say in air quotes like the teams fighting for a playoff spot. I have no idea what Tyreek Hill is going to look like in their offense. I did get him in the third round in my fantasy draft, but I don't know how that's going to be implemented into their offense. And for Tua I'll say the same thing that that I've said about to offset going back to last season, which is we don't know what to a tagovailoa is but we know what he is not. We know Tua Tagovailoa is not going to be a quarterback that makes plays with his feet, rolls to his left or is right and throws passes 40 yards down the field to like three inch windows like, say, Kyler Murray or Justin Herbert. [00:01:38][81.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:01:38] I think that was part of the miss evaluation and why people have been so critical of to actually in his very early career is because we were sold the left handed Russell Wilson and we quickly learned that just wasn't really going to be the case of what deal was going to become. [00:01:52][13.5]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:01:52] Yeah, absolutely. And we don't know exactly what he is yet because he hasn't been given an opportunity to succeed the last two years of basically been the equivalent of a rookie season for two. Now, obviously, the offense was not tailored to him his rookie year. He's had three different offensive coordinators in two years. Last year, the Dolphins had the worst offensive line in the NFL like he has been in that cycle that, say, Zach Wilson is it right now or Sam Darnold was in with with the Jets or what Justin Fields is experiencing. So think of the last two years as his rookie year and go from there and say this is the year that Tua has at least a solid team. It's not a great offense, it's a good offense and that's an improvement from where it was over the past few years, is that they now have a good offense instead of a terrible offense. [00:02:39][47.0]
Julian Martinez: [00:02:40] See, I think I like their offense a little bit more than you do, and that's probably just because being a little bit closer to the situation of seeing Mike McDaniel work for the Niners last year, I like some of the philosophies that he's going to be infusing into the Dolphins offense. And then I like some of the personnel moves that they made around to made around this offense, because if two turns into at worst, instead the left handed Russell Wilson, he used the left handed Jimmy Garoppolo. I think that that's a winning situation for the Dolphins coming into this year. I know Dolphins fans because he was a top five draft pick, would obviously hope that he turns into much more than that, that he turns into a quarterback that's wearing a gold jacket one day. But through the first two seasons, we haven't seen him show that he's capable of that. So I think you should just change the expectations. Just hoping that he can maybe be in the hall. Very good one day if he turns out to be somewhat of a matt Ryan or Philip Rivers type for his career, because that wouldn't be shameful in any ways. In fact, if you put the right team around him, maybe that's a team that could win a Super Bowl. [00:03:50][69.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:03:50] Let's just say a ten year NFL starter. A ten year starter on two different teams would be ideal because what we're looking at is the possibility of him not getting to start in the NFL ever again if this season goes poorly. [00:04:01][10.6]
Julian Martinez: [00:04:02] See, and that's why I mentioned earlier the make or break portion of it. And I think that you talk about what rare and what do you talk about McDaniel did with loading up this team with guys like Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead fixing up the offensive line a little bit, bringing in guys like Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds is they want to put the pressure on to to use those guys to perform to even though, again, not live up to his draft stock, but live up to just being a top 15 top half of the league quarterback. That would be the hope this year. And if they don't see that, if he performs outside of that, if he has something like a Baker Mayfield season last year, then that's where. Okay, we've seen the teams are very quick to move off a young quarterback nowadays so they don't waste time and I respect it. Do you want to double down on mistakes? If you made a mistake, sometimes you just the best case scenario is just a cut bait. The worst thing to has done is just not be as good as Justin Herbert. [00:05:01][59.4]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:05:02] Well, I wouldn't say that. I mean Tua was a bad quarterback during his rookie. A year and last year he was an okay quarterback. [00:05:09][6.8]
Julian Martinez: [00:05:10] And his one day and his rookie year, the worst thing he did was not be as good as Ryan Fitzpatrick. [00:05:14][3.7]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:05:15] Yeah. Yeah. That was also partly Brian Flores wanting to play Ryan Fitzpatrick. But your point still stands like Tua was not good as rookie year, but he got a pass because he only played in eight games. In terms of it being a make or break year, that one's tricky because that's contingent on not just two but the alternatives. Like you're only as good as the options that you have. People make that line all the time and it's very true. The Dolphins are only as good as the options that they have to replace to with. So if Tua is a quarterback who gets replaced at some point during the season by Jacoby. No, it's not Jacoby Brissett. It's Bridgewater, right? Bridgewater. [00:05:54][38.7]
Julian Martinez: [00:05:54] Teddy Bridgewater. [00:05:55][0.2]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:05:55] Yeah. If Bridgewater replaces him, well then you can find Bridgewater every offseason. In fact, Teddy Bridgewater is available every offseason. You can find one of those. But if he's if he's 70% completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions, you know, there might be a better option for you. How much do you like Carson Wentz? How much do you like Jared Goff? How much do you like the possibility of giving up a pick for Derek Carr like maybe. [00:06:23][27.8]
Julian Martinez: [00:06:23] You instead of having the left handed Jimmy Garoppolo, you just get the right handed version of Mike McConnell next year. [00:06:29][6.2]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:06:30] Does Tom Brady still want to come? Is a 46 year old Tom Brady for two years better than to I'd like those are all things that whether it's a make or break year is all based on your yeah. Based on your. [00:06:42][11.7]
Julian Martinez: [00:06:42] Options and not even though we start off the segment talk about two or none not to get too much into those conspiracy theories based around Tom Brady, but based off last year's version of Tom Brady that led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Is the drop off over the course of two years going to be that dramatic for the veteran quarterback? I say no because at this point I just don't know what's really going to stop him. But at the same time, you we know that sometimes it just happens quick. Sometimes it just like one day you're Tom Brady, one day you're Peyton Manning, and the next day you can't even beat out Brock Osweiler for a spot. [00:07:15][32.5]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:07:15] So, I mean, we say this. Yeah. And then the last time the Patriots, when Tom Brady was a free agent two years ago, like a bunch of teams were asking themselves, would you rather have three years of Tom Brady or would you rather have seven years of Ryan Tannehill? And like 75% of teams said we'd rather go with Ryan Tannehill for seven years than we would with Tom Brady for two or three years. [00:07:36][21.1]
Julian Martinez: [00:07:37] I think we literally just talked about it with the Derek Carr situation right here. You're sticking with that? In theory, yeah. [00:07:43][6.5]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:07:43] But the Niners did it with Garoppolo. Yes. [00:07:46][2.1]
Julian Martinez: [00:07:46] And I you know, again, not doubling down on my mistakes as from an analyst perspective, but I would say that I was wrong in that assessment. That team, the Niners should have kept Jimmy Garoppolo over Tom Brady, especially with how that quarterback situation played out when going back to Tua because obviously that's what this video is about. Again, Finn Span, this video is for you the expectations going into the year. So I think you go in this year even with the first year coach, third year, four year starting quarterback, you go in with the expectation and try and be a wildcard team because we know that the bills are probably going to win this division. Right? [00:08:21][34.9]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:08:22] And they will. Yeah. [00:08:23][1.4]
Julian Martinez: [00:08:24] And then it gets tough because okay, we're looking at this AFC West picture and they very well are likely to send three teams. So really you're just fighting over that last spot with the AFC North and the AFC North is going to be having some good teams in their division as well. The Bengals obviously were last in last year's Super Bowl and Super Bowl hangover is is a thing. So we'll monitor that situation. I expect the Ravens to win the division. The Browns with the 11 game suspension for Deshaun Watson might be a non-factor, but I still don't completely count out the Steelers. So are you essentially if you're the Dolphins, you're in a fight with the Bengals and Steelers? I don't really count the AFC East or the AFC South for that next wild card. I mean, I could be surprised by the Colts or, you know, the Titans depending football, those to two. But I think it's realistic for the Dolphins this year. They have good defense, good defenders and the additions they made on the offense to expect to get that seventh wildcard spot or how am I b the sixth flip up the order. I don't think it really matters that much, but I think that they should be in that conversation looking at their early season schedule, just kind of like weigh it out as far as kind of like going game by game here a little bit. So you start off week one against the Patriots here today. I think they're a better team than the Patriots and we'll maybe do a game preview on it, too. But I think they're a better team than the Patriots. So okay, you start one, two. No, then you go into Baltimore, then you go against Buffalo. So you might start off the season one or two just because of the early season scheduling here. And I mentioned who you're fighting for for that wildcard spot. They played the Bengals week that week four game, I think is going to tell us a lot against the Bengals. [00:10:06][102.6]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:10:07] If you will. It might matter at the end of the season, too, just because those go one and three fighting. [00:10:11][4.2]
Julian Martinez: [00:10:12] Yeah. If you go one and three, Bengals have type. Breaker. That's not really a situation that you find yourself in because you could get right with the Jets, the Steelers. Again, that's going to be another tough one for you. But again, that's a winnable game. If you're them, then you should be able to beat the Lions. You should be able to beat the bears. So the dolphins actually have a favorable middle of the season stretch. They get face the Browns while Deshaun is still suspended. Get a face the Texans. Who knows what they're going to be by the end of the year. Dolphins will see how the trey lance jimmy garoppolo situation. Our 40 niners. See how the trey lance jimmy garoppolo situation shakes out. This is going to be the measuring stick game for tua. This is going to be the one the two A has to circle. Faces the Chargers December 11th in Los Angeles. So luckily it's not a home game for Miami fans to see what Justin Herbert could do to them. Bills You know, you have to face them again. Packers This is where things get a little tough. So hopefully if you're the Dolphins, you pad your midseason schedule, you win those winnable games because you got bills. Packers, Patriots and the Jets are two winnable games to close out the year. I look at that, I'm thinking eight wins, nine wins, at least in there that I can see. [00:11:21][69.5]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:11:23] That's it. [00:11:24][0.7]
Julian Martinez: [00:11:24] Once you get into the playoffs, though. [00:11:26][1.9]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:11:27] There is one interesting point around this, and that is because there's so many teams in the middle of the AFC this year, someone's going to go six and 11 in the AFC. Now it'll probably be because of injuries. If you were to bet a team that was going to go six and 11 between the Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins and Bengals, if we're going based on history, which of those teams do you think is most likely to go six and 11 just based on history of like which teams are usually hyped up that end up having something go catastrophically wrong? It's probably the Dolphins. Now, that's not to say the Dolphins will they? They should be an 8 to 9 win team on paper, like you said. But someone's going to have to lose those games. It might be the Titans, someone's going to have to lose 11 games there to lose. There's always that possibility. But injuries permitting, the Dolphins will at least be in the thick of things. And you were talking about earlier, the teams, they're competing with you. You kind of like penciled in three teams from the AFC West. And I think if the Dolphins are to make the playoffs, they might have to boot one of those AFC West teams out. [00:12:29][62.4]
Julian Martinez: [00:12:30] That'll be the ideal situation. But we look at the AFC West and we look at how talented each of those rosters are, particularly at the quarterback position. And it's hard to bet against it. I mean. There. There is a lot of things in the AFC West to kind of note with each team, right? So I think the Chiefs are the surest thing to me out of those four teams that Broncos new coach, the Raiders new coach, the Chargers probably a bad head coach. [00:12:57][27.8]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:00] That's that's not fair. But I understand your point. [00:13:03][3.3]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:04] So okay, so if we're playing its more liberally for them then you would say that. Okay, best case scenario, only two teams out of the AFC West come and that's a great situation. If you're the Dolphins, that's a situation you want that only two of those teams come out of the AFC West because then that opens up two spots for you to slide into. But that also is solved by for the one. [00:13:29][25.6]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:13:30] That assumes that either the Ravens or Bengals won't make the playoffs, which is hard to assess. It's totally possible. It's just really hard for me to picture a scenario where the Dolphins and Raiders make the playoffs and the Bengals or the Ravens don't. [00:13:42][12.2]
Julian Martinez: [00:13:43] But we know what the NFL's history is, right? There's always this one team, this one outlier team that happens to at least make it, if not do what the Bengals did and make a little bit of noise in the playoffs. Now, I'm not saying that that's the Dolphins, but I'm saying that they, at least to me, strike me as a playoff team this year. As I sit here today, as I break down that early season schedule. Like I said, I think the week four game against the Bengals is the big one for them because I expect to use the Dolphins. I expected to lose the Ravens. If you surprise me, though, if you beat Baltimore, then I'm looking at you completely different. Then that really kind of like shifts. My whole complexion is above the dolphins, so really they should mark obviously they can't lose that week one game, but really they should look at week two and say, okay, if we start to snow and then we go to Buffalo, then we're starting fill ourselves a little bit and Buffalo has to come to our house too and. [00:14:35][52.0]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:14:35] It would be fun. [00:14:36][0.4]
Julian Martinez: [00:14:36] Yeah, the buffalo has to go to Miami for that week, three games. So if you want to get an early lead, if you want to build yourself some equity, win equity at the start of the year, the Dolphins have an opportunity to do it. They don't have games that I consider out of reach and with their additions on offense, I think that they very much are our team to beat this year, but I do think it is a make or break. Just go back to that point real quick, because I know we got to start wrapping up this video. I do think it is a make or break for two. And I do think the playoffs is the expectation if they're a fringe playoff team because they've been a fringe playoff team the last two years, I almost don't think that that's good enough and I don't think that means that to is not going to be on the roster next year. But I think that it's very likely that he finds himself in a situation where he's competing for snaps against insert veteran quarterback or insert second round pick. [00:15:25][48.3]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:15:26] Yeah, I think that would be not ideal for the Dolphins if too is competing with Bridgewater for snaps come next year. [00:15:32][5.8]
Julian Martinez: [00:15:33] Yeah, but not making it to the playoffs through three years is also not ideal for them either. [00:15:37][4.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:15:38] Well, so this is the interesting point about this because one would argue the Dolphins have gone all in. Remember, the Dolphins got all of the Texans draft picks for three years when they got the did the Tunsil trade and they they tapped. [00:15:48][10.9]
Julian Martinez: [00:15:49] The Niners picks, too. So here's the thing, though. The Dolphins could pivot quick, too, because they do always have one more of the Niners draft picks next year to where they actually flip that flipped their own pick and. [00:16:00][11.7]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:16:01] No, not their picks gone tampering charges. Their first rounder is gone this year. [00:16:05][4.0]
Julian Martinez: [00:16:06] They said, forget about that. Thank you. Yeah. [00:16:08][2.2]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:16:08] You know, there's no there there 40 niners pick basically serves as their first rounder. But the point I was going to say is like the dolphins have gone as close to all in as as a lot of teams would. You would say like one of the eight teams in the NFL that's gone all in. If you don't make the playoffs this year, it's not a sign to blow it all up. Now, actually, if Tyreek Hill plays terrible next year, that might be a sign to blow it all up. But if you play well and just barely missed the playoffs, that's not a reason to blow it all up. It's okay to not say. [00:16:37][29.4]
Julian Martinez: [00:16:38] Blow it up. But I'm I'm not I'm not saying like I said, I think to a could be on this roster but and I'm not even saying Teddy Bridgewater again I'm talking there's veteran quarterbacks out there I mean if Ryan Tannehill you could end up in Ryan Tannehill situation. [00:16:50][12.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:16:50] No the Dolphins. No no nothing happens to. [00:16:52][2.0]
Julian Martinez: [00:16:53] Contain Ryan Tannehill and that's it. But I'm saying you could end up in a current Ryan Tannehill and Tennessee situation. Dolphins fans have. [00:17:00][7.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:17:00] Suffered enough. [00:17:00][0.5]
Julian Martinez: [00:17:01] Where you're where you're obviously you're drafting Willis, you know, to be behind him. [00:17:06][5.1]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:17:06] Yeah but two but two is coming up on that that fifth year option, too. And I think that declining the fifth year option would be a signifier that he's not going to be on the team long term. You can look at all of the players who had their fifth year options declined on down from Jameis Winston or not Jameis Winston for Marcus Mariota to Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold got picked up by the Panthers, but the Jets got rid of them before that one happened. [00:17:30][24.1]
Julian Martinez: [00:17:31] The worst case you could probably franchise tag him if you do decide to cosign and to actually decides to bowl out his last remaining year, which is always a possibility. And I know. That it gets ugly sometimes when you get into the franchise tag game. But that is an option for you if you do decide to decline the fifth year option. And I think there's been a lot of situations in which other NFL owners would say, yeah, we wish we declined the fifth year option on Baker Mayfield. Yeah, we wish we declined the fifth year option on Sam Darnold. So also, look around the league. You don't need to be making the same mistakes, even though I think the two of the better than Baker. They're about the same quarterback to me at this point. [00:18:07][35.8]
Kyle Ledbetter: [00:18:07] I will reiterate that we don't know what to it is to Baker feels fully formed but we don't know what to is yet. We know what he is not, but we don't know what to it is. So he could absolutely come out this year and be the equivalent of the rotting corpse of Matt Ryan on the Colts. And if he does that, that's a top 12 QB R quarterback in football. That's pretty good, especially if some other teams get hurt or some teams have bad injury luck and the Dolphins can maybe slide into the playoffs because insert team that was going to make the AFC playoffs has a cataclysmic amount of injuries like Baltimore did last year. [00:18:43][35.2]
Julian Martinez: [00:18:43] I'd like him to cut down on turnovers. I'd like him to up his touchdown numbers. Just look into the raw stats here. He's a 67% completion percentage like that. That's good. That's fine. Even though I know a lot of that is short yardage check downs some some of the things that he's been ripped on when he played the Giants last year. Sure. But 16 touchdowns to ten interceptions, you like to increase that touchdown interception ratio a little bit in a positive direction, the yards per attempt. You like to boost that a little bit more and maybe that's obviously hey, you got a deep wide receiver in Tyreek Hill use him and that's going to increase that number a little bit. I think McDaniels is going to be good. I think the running backs stable that they got is actually going to help and I think Tyreek Hill is going to help up Terron Armstead. That's going to be all great things. I think too is going to trend in the right direction. I think this Dolphins team is trending in the right direction. We just got to kind of have to see it. And I know Dolphin fans really want to see it. So I'm going to leave it to Dolphins fans. I'm going to leave it to two. Anon, what is your expectation for the 2022 Miami Dolphins? Reasonable, unreasonable or not? Just dropped below. I want to read it all. We were like on this video from JuJu Talk sports Kyle Ledbetter. Subscribe, stay safe, happy and healthy and we will see you next time. She? [00:18:43][0.0]
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