Has Shanahan, the 49ers Already Ruined Trey Lance and His Development?

Speaker 1: [00:00:12] The Niners injuries, they just kind of go hand in hand. It's that rocky meme of them just kind of like shaking hands. Injuries. Kyle Shanahan, just right here. I'm sorry, the predator. I'm mixing up my 1980s action movies. The Predator, Not Rocky. Don't Kill Me. [00:00:29][17.1]
Speaker 2: [00:00:29] From 1976, dude, you 19. [00:00:32][2.6]
Speaker 1: [00:00:33] Whatever. And anything that, you know, has that kind of odd tint of movie is like a eighties movie to me. And anything that's black and white is basically a fifties movie. That's how it works for me in my mind that. Anyway, guys, you know the main story. What's up? Bury the lead here. Niners fan here. Got the helmet on my desk. Trey Lance is done for the year and Kyle and I kind of had different thought processes through this whole process of how to develop. Lance are the niners developing? Lance Well, I was shocked that Jimmy G came back. I was shocked that Jimmy G came back. I was less shocked in a way. But, you know, I knew it was a possibility. I just kind of was waiting to see how the situation played out. And sure enough, it worked out six and a half million dollar incentive. Wait until now. That's going to get pumped up to $17 million because he's going to play Trey Lance is done for the year. Jimmy Garoppolo the starter the rest of the year as long as he can stay upright and on the field so Kyle like how he feel and he got a couple of days to digest this one. [00:01:28][55.1]
Speaker 2: [00:01:29] So if you check out the Take It Easy podcast, which I record every day, there's a 40 minute talk about this and I waited like 72 hours to kind of process all of it so I won't get to everything I want to say. Just want to direct people there just in case. Going back to stuff we talked about in the past, I thought it was insane that they would bring Garoppolo back because I mean, I guess in hindsight later we figured out because everyone filled their backup jobs, but like paying $10 million for a third round pick where Garoppolo would only be used as a kind of like distraction for Trey Lance, because they should have given I believe they should have given Trey Lance the team as soon as they drafted him in 2021. And like, you know, optics be damned about Garoppolo or whatever else. And if you're spending that much on a quarterback that high, you go for it. Where I didn't process the situation is the odds were so small that the 40 Niners would be the team that had the catastrophic injury. Like even when they brought back Jimmy G for training camp, they were waiting for someone to have a catastrophic injury who would then trade for Garoppolo. The odds were so slim that the 40 Niners would be the team that had the catastrophic injury that in my mind I didn't even contemplate that that would be a possibility in the Garoppolo calculation. So that's where I will apologize for that. It's really good that they have Garoppolo on the roster because the I mean, if there's 32 teams, the 3% chance that Trey Lance would be the quarterback who had the catastrophic injury that would leave him out for the season. The fact that it happened to San Francisco, everything worked out great because that small percentage chance ended up coming true for San Francisco. [00:03:04][95.3]
Speaker 1: [00:03:04] Two things that I want to touch on that you mentioned the idea of not going all in. They didn't go all in on Trey Lance, but they went all in on last season. They made it all the way to the NFC championship game. So they they went on in. They thought, we're going to roll out our best players, the players that we think give us the best chance to win. And that was Garoppolo. And I think that still carries into the 2022 season. When you ask around the team, you look at the Mike Silver reports, you listen to that locker room. There's a lot of people in that locker room that think that Jimmy Garoppolo should have been the week one starter and you should maybe play the situation reversed. And too, I want to talk about the odds of the Niners being the one to face the catastrophic injury. Obviously, I mentioned as a joke the kind of team odds, the random poor luck that has befallen the Niners franchise in terms of injuries, but not a chance, unfortunately, have to come to an uncomfortable conversation about Trey Lance in terms of his health and his injury status. He's a guy that's been injured in college. He's a guy that was injured last year and minimal playing time and he's injured this year and added to the fact that the coach doesn't trust him enough to throw the ball. So he's running him through the middle. He's running them between the tackles and putting him further injury risk. And that that's kind of where things are with the Niners fan base in terms of the injuries and the idea of going all in. I think that right now today they are a better team. With Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, I think that they have the best odds to win a Super Bowl. I think what went wrong is that they just gave Trey Lance the job without any competition in training camp. I think that was the mistake. [00:04:33][88.9]
Speaker 2: [00:04:34] So this is interesting because if last year going all in on Jimmy Garoppolo are going all in on the team meant Jimmy Garoppolo playing and this year going all in meant having competition between Lance and Garoppolo. This brings up the thing I've been arguing between the two points, which is there's a conversation of Lance versus Garoppolo and then there's a conversation of why did you pick Trey Lance in the first place? Why did you trade up for 3/1 round pick? Because you believe he's the. [00:05:01][26.7]
Speaker 1: [00:05:01] Shooter, Kyle, because you believe he's the future. And we just because he hasn't played the first two years doesn't mean that that's. Still not the case. That's not still on the table. I know this isn't the 1990s anymore, but Steve Young thought to wait six years for Joe Montana to leave town to get into the game. And when he did, he was fantastic. He was the future of San Francisco at that point. I don't think just because we live in 2022, it just resets the entire game. We played this game for a long time. [00:05:26][25.0]
Speaker 2: [00:05:27] But Shanahan and John Lynch have said publicly for months on end the point of drafting Trey Lance was so they could get value at the quarterback position in order to pay all these other players their giant contracts. The whole point of getting him was to have the rookie contract quarterback. So this is Shanahan and Lynch saying that. So what is the point now that all three of the first round picks you could have had? So the 2021 first, the 2022 first and the 2023 first, they will all be spent before Trey Lance plays more than four starts as the 40 Niners quarterback. And of course, they couldn't have predicted the injury this year if you had started him from last year, week one, and he had gotten hurt this year, perhaps they don't go as far in the playoffs, perhaps they go further in the playoffs. You would have had the same sample size as like the Dolphins have right now on tour. And I hear a lot of people making conclusions about what two is or isn't after 20 starts. If you give Trey Lance 20 starts, at least you have a better idea of what he is right now. You still have just as much information as you had when you drafted him in 2021. [00:06:30][63.0]
Speaker 1: [00:06:31] Well, you know, maybe I'm obviously I'm playing the results here. I know what happened. We looked into that crystal ball and we know that the result was NFC championship game appearance. But what I would say is that there's been multiple ways to carve out development of a quarterback, and it's a very new idea, the idea of just throwing a quarterback or rookie out there in week one and just kind of fend for yourselves. And everyone said it on draft day, the Trey Lance was going to be a project quarterback. Everyone knew he was going to be project quarterback. Everyone knew that if you wanted the guy that was going be ready day one. Yes, you draft Mac Jones as unexciting, as unsexy, as epic would have been. You draft Mac Jones on day one. If you want a guy that's ready to go in there and maybe rookie year Mac Jones with the Niners offense and all that, you could make an argument, who knows? Maybe he's in the playoffs. Maybe they want a playoff game with him. I doubt it. I don't think he would have survived the frozen tundra in Green Bay and the same way that Jimmy Garoppolo was able to navigate as a veteran. But you can make that case if we're saying that Mac Jones is just a tick below what Jimmy Garoppolo is in terms of ability with Trey Lance, you're still hoping one day down the line maybe he takes coming off this injury he comes back better third year training camp. He has that Josh Allen and yes, we can talk about value we can talk about the value of the contract that you waste the rookie deal. Who cares if, let's say Jimmy Garoppolo gets you back to where you were this past season? Let's say they get back in the NFC championship game. Is it really not worth it? You know, you made it to two NFC championship game appearances and you're still a Super Bowl contender. And if Trey Lance does have that third year breakout, that fourth year breakout, you look at this 3 to 4 years of Niners football and you still think of it as a success. You know, you think go in. Yes. Rather than going 7 to 10. Correct. With Trey Lance just trying to figure it out, meander his rookie year, maybe he gets a little bit better. Let's talk about a two of development gets you to nine and eight. But you missed the playoffs this year, right? Is that what you trade that or a couple of NFC championship game appearances maybe the possibility of Lombardi because that's still on the table, you know, in terms of also contract wise, salary cap wise, let's say they got Jimmy Garoppolo at a fucking bargain, you know? Yeah, end of the day, like 17 million for a guy that at least has Jimmy's resume, because we could again, we can nitpicked Jimmy to death. We could debate where his contract should lie in terms of what he's done, the results compared to what his contract is. A $17 million quarterback, you got him at a bargain. One of the best bargains in the NFL. You look at some of the other quarterbacks in the league, they're getting paid 20, 30 million that are less accomplished. Jimmy Garoppolo has been there, done that, and hopefully can continue to do that so long as again, and this is factored into it. He stays upright. You know, big part of the reason Trey Lance is even in the locker room is Jimmy Garoppolo has injury history himself. So, you know, that's baked in. That's all things are a part of this cake of Niners football. [00:09:22][170.7]
Speaker 2: [00:09:23] And this is an interesting point because you're right, it would be a success if the 40 Niners make three NFC champs or even make three deep playoff runs like they can lose in the second round this year. And it would be successful given all the injuries they already have. Like if they make that run, it would be successful and at the same time the process to get there would be incredibly fucking stupid because they should have just spent those 3/1 round picks instead of trading it for Trey Lance. Which brings me to the thing that I brought up on my podcast, which is the 40 Niners are basically just people who's turned all their paychecks into crypto in 2021, like they basically just spent 3/1 round picks on something that only has value because everyone agrees it has value. [00:10:04][41.2]
Speaker 1: [00:10:04] So I'm going to tell you this. As someone who has heard the crypto discussion for the last couple of years by the dip, the dip is Trey Lance, his injury by that dip and next year it. [00:10:14][9.8]
Speaker 2: [00:10:14] Doesn't matter anymore. [00:10:15][0.8]
Speaker 1: [00:10:16] To the fantasy football league. Buy that dip that is Trey Lance, I am telling you right now give you some free fantasy advice on this very serious Niners football discussion. [00:10:24][8.5]
Speaker 2: [00:10:25] This very serious discussion of crypto. But crypto in December of 2020, the value of crypto was one Bitcoin was worth $60,000. Today it's worth $19,050. So it's already lost 70% of its value. Even if you buy the dip, it's already lost 70% of what you would have put in back in, you know, 20, 21 when they traded for Trey Lance. So you've already lost 70% of the value. You just threw it away. And yes, it might work out in the end because you still have a really talented team and you drafted well for four years and got, you know, the greatest offensive tackle in football for a third round pick. Like it might work out. It was just a stupid way to get there because you should have drafted Devonta Smith, you should have drafted, I don't know, whoever they could have gotten late in the draft last year. You could have drafted someone this year like you could have done something else if you were going to play Garoppolo anyways. Because it seems. [00:11:19][53.5]
Speaker 1: [00:11:19] Like we only nitpicked the Patriots now after Tom Brady's left and look back at all these horrible draft decisions that Bill Belichick has made. But we forgive him. Patriots fans forgive him because they have, what, seven championships or six championships with Bill Belichick in town. So I think that what it comes down to end of the day, one way or the other, eventually Niners fans are going to start holding Kyle Shanahan accountable to winning championships because he has been kind of coasting on, you know, obviously being in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Trey Lance Bottoms some time I guess that's also part of the thing, too, was like how much like could Kyle Shanahan afford to just kind of work and try to develop because we don't really have much resume of him being a developmental guy. You know, we don't have much of a resumé of him building up a quarterback. Who's the quarterback that Kyle Shanahan's built up to this point? [00:12:12][52.8]
Speaker 2: [00:12:13] Kyle Shanahan has built up and zero quarterbacks. It's just that. [00:12:17][4.3]
Speaker 1: [00:12:18] Right guys who have already a guy who was in an NFC championship games. Sure. You want to. [00:12:22][4.1]
Speaker 2: [00:12:23] Elevate. [00:12:23][0.0]
Speaker 1: [00:12:23] People. He's elevated people. Jimmy Garoppolo, we say he's elevated him, but too, this is another thing that's part of the discussion is. [00:12:30][7.3]
Speaker 2: [00:12:31] His his project before Ryan was up, his project before Matt Ryan was Brandon Weeden. That was basically his project. And by the way, I just went back. You could have had Micah Parsons at pick 11. You could have had Rashawn Slater at 11. [00:12:45][14.5]
Speaker 1: [00:12:46] Yes, that is fair. That is understandable. But if in year four, let's because we okay, we actually don't know this I how if I told you Jimmy Garoppolo takes him to a Super Bowl this year, then how hard is that discussion going to be next year? Like, are you just going to say still are that's on scholarship. That's something that's going to be part of the chaos. But again. [00:13:07][21.1]
Speaker 2: [00:13:08] What was the point of getting Trey Lance in the first place? It's basically like spending. [00:13:11][3.7]
Speaker 1: [00:13:12] Your money to have him. You want to have him in, you're on your team in your locker room. You want to figure it out. You want to see if you can build him up. It's not like this is conclusive evidence that he's done. This is over. Trey, Lance's future with the Niners is over. This is this is a setback. Everyone acknowledges this is a setback. This is a huge speedbump. But hopefully this is something that on the other side and hopefully on the other side results in some jewelry in your pocket. But on the other side that you have a franchise quarterback coming to your team. Sometimes you just want to get guys in the building like, okay, sometimes you draft a seventh round quarterback and you don't play him right away and you're fine with that because you drafted in the seventh round, right? Keep them on your team a couple of years and a couple of years down the road, he becomes a stud. We just got to have to shift that expectation. Yes, you had to pay a premium to go grab him, but you got to keep him on your roster. Yeah, keep him in your locker room, develop him, bring him around your guys, build him up, and maybe eventually you might have to pay him more. I don't know how much you would have to pay him unless he's putting up Josh Allen numbers next year. And even then you still might be okay with that, you know? [00:14:18][66.3]
Speaker 2: [00:14:19] Yeah, but it was just so stupid in the first place because if you were going to play Jimmy two seasons anyways, this year is the year to get the quarterback or if you have three, if you're willing to spend 3/1 round picks anyway. [00:14:30][11.7]
Speaker 1: [00:14:31] So that's what. [00:14:32][0.7]
Speaker 2: [00:14:32] Russell Wilson was. [00:14:33][0.7]
Speaker 1: [00:14:33] I think is stupid is they should have done it in reverse. If you did it in reverse. I don't think you get killed as much as you do today if as much as you do this week. If you had Trey Lance have to come in with Jimmy Garoppolo, battle it out and cap and you just said Trey Lance is the better quarterback. Let's start him. You don't get killed as much. But since you did this situation where you put Jimmy Garoppolo on the bench as the backup, now the guys in the locker room also have to question the coach. Why weren't you starting the better quarterback from the start? Because it was clear that in those two games you did not trust the playbook to be fully opened up under Trey Lance because tonight. Is throwing the ball around exponentially more than they were when Trey Lance was on the field versus when he exited. I think that that's something to also kind of note. And, you know, the conversation on Bay Area Twitter is constantly is Kyle Shanahan not as much of a genius as we think? I guess we'll find out. Because, you know, another thing that's following him around is nine or ten is besides when Jimmy Garoppolo has been in the lineup, there has been a lot of wins. And that's kind of spurned a lot of fans and a lot of fans the wrong way. So we'll see how that develops. And I think I've said my piece with it. I would encourage everyone to check out, you know, you have 40 minutes, like you said, El Rey recorded. Hey, we got those links in the bio. Check him out, guys. Drop in on the discussion. I know everyone has their opinion on this. Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyle Shanahan, 40 niners mess that is. And I want to know what everyone else is feeling about it. A label like on the video helps a channel. Subscribe to the channel, helps it even more. Follow us on social media. Kyle Ledbetter Juju Talk Sports. Instagram handles right there. Stay safe, happy and healthy. We'll see you next one. She? [00:14:33][0.0]
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